If you've stopped trying to predict the RBA's next move, you're not alone. After holding steady in June and August, the Reserve Bank lifted the cash rate to 4.60% on 29 September 2026, its fourth increase this year and the highest level since 2011.

So here's the honest answer to the question everyone's asking: what's the RBA interest rate outlook from here, and what should you actually do about it?

Where rates stand right now

The RBA lifted the cash rate four times in 2026: in February, March, May and September. It paused in June and August, but those holds didn't mean the RBA was done. In September, the board said inflation remains elevated and that higher global energy prices are flowing through to the cost of other goods and services.

A hold is never a promise, and September proved it.

Why the forecasts keep missing

This is the part that makes 2026 different from previous cycles. In the middle of the year, the major banks were genuinely split.

  • Westpac was the most hawkish, forecasting rate rises in August and September that would take the cash rate to 4.85%.
  • Commonwealth Bank expected the cash rate to hold at 4.35% for the rest of 2026, with the first cut in early 2027.
  • NAB flagged that the next move was more likely to be down, expecting cuts through 2027.
  • ANZ sat somewhere in between, pencilling in cuts later in 2027.

In the end, the RBA held in August and hiked in September, a path none of them quite predicted. When four major banks with access to the same data land in different places, it tells you something: nobody actually knows. Anyone promising you certainty about where rates land next year is guessing, just like everyone else.

What this means for your mortgage

Here's the part that matters more than any forecast: whether the cash rate rises, holds or falls, it doesn't decide whether you're on a good deal.

Lenders don't have to move when the RBA holds, and they don't have to pass on cuts evenly when it eases. Many continue adjusting their own rates, offers and lending policies independently, especially for new customers they're trying to win, while existing customers are often left on whatever rate they've already got.

This is the pattern we see again and again with clients: their bank quietly prices new customers better than loyal ones, and nobody tells them until they ask.

What to actually do while the outlook stays unclear

You don't need to predict the RBA's next move to make a smart decision. You just need to know where you stand right now.

A few practical steps, regardless of which way rates go from here:

  • Check your current rate against what new customers are being offered. If there's a gap, that's the loyalty tax in action.
  • Review your loan structure, not just the rate. Whether you're on principal and interest or interest only, and how your offset is set up, can matter more than half a percent.
  • Get a read on your numbers before you need to act. If rates do move again in either direction, you want to already know what your options are, not be scrambling to figure it out.

None of this requires switching lenders or making a snap decision. It just means you're not finding out years later that you were quietly overpaying.

The bottom line on the 2026 rate outlook

The RBA's next move is genuinely uncertain, and that's unlikely to change soon. Rather than waiting for a forecast that might not hold up, it's worth getting a clear, honest read on your own loan now.

That's what a free rate review with Swish is for. We check your current position first, tell you honestly whether switching is worth it, and explain it all in plain English. No pressure, no jargon, no sales pitch dressed up as advice.

Book a free rate review with Swish and find out exactly where you stand, whatever the RBA does next.